Today I would like to talk about something a little different. I have been browsing many Forex forums and talking with many traders and I am seeing a new trend or  one could argue a trading strategy. It is called the 10 minute trader. One amazing thing about this strategy is many claim to have made a lot of money and minimized the amount of risk associated with opening a large position. These are traders opening large lots in the minimum amount of $500,000 to $5 million. How they determine which way to trade is simple, they simply view a 10 minute chart and following the trend on the specific pair they are trading. Most 10 minute traders, trade with the majors, mostly a pair that has been trading in 20-30 pip range with low spread such as EUR/USD or USD/JPY. Those pairs can prove to be interesting in this trading strategy. Looking at a 10 minute chart on EUR/USD and we can clearly see the pip opportunity of a 10 pip move on a $1 Million position, that’s a $1000 profit just for following nothing but technical analysis on a 10 minute chart , please make sure to look on the overall trend of the pair you are trading with as well by taking a zoom out in the chart or changing your time scale to hourly or daily to ensure maximum knowledge on this pair and keeping on eye out on some of the fundamental news coming out.

USD/JPY

Yes,yes,yes I know it is one of the most interesting pairs to trade with, we talked yesterday how the JPY was in a nice clear trend and waiting with the position could lead to a nice profit. Now let’s take a look over the last few days, we will find a lovely trend showing the USD getting weaker while showing us traders believe in the JPY right now. From a technical point of view, we can take a look at the next support line for this pair, if this pairs gets there it is likely to break it and the trend will continue. For us this always an exciting pair to look at and trade with, also don’t forget to look for the announcements coming from the US and Japan today. Enjoy and happy trading.

Resistances-89.80– 90.12-90.40

Supports-89.34 – 89.12-88.68

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from Switzerland we have the “KOF Leading Indicators”. The previous announcement was -0.04 and the forecast for today is 0.5. (09:30 GMT).

Three more announcements coming in from United States, one of importance is the “ADP Employment Change” which will be released at 12:15 GMT. The previous announcement was -298k and the forecast for today is -200k. Also coming in from Canada “GDP m/m” which will be released at 12:30 GMT. The previous announcement was 0.1% and the forecast for today is 0.4%. Also coming in from Japan is the “Tankan” announcement which will be released at 23:50 GMT. The previous announcement was -48 and the forecast for today is -33.

Today we will talk a bit about the cross currencies that are traded in the fx market. Many of us know that in the fx market we can trade with the majors (Those include the currencies traded against the USD), commodities ( those include oil ,gold ,silver and those are traded against the USD as well) and  of course last but not least are the crosses, many traders, professional and new are still wondering how to read and analyze the crosses. The answer to this is very simple, we will take for example the pair GBP/JPY what most of you didn’t know is that if we will break this pair up,  we can find there 2 pairs that directly effect it overall performance, those pairs are the GBP/USD and USD/JPY. By observing these 2 pairs we can clearly see the direction of this pair. For example if we follow the trend of the last week, we see a stronger Yen against the USD and a weaker GBP against the USD, thus we can determine that the Yen is going to gain strength against the GBP as well.

Let’s go a head and analyze this amazing pair:

GBP/JPY

Over the last few weeks we saw how the GBP and the JPY moved in a range between 163.00 to 148.00 over a daily chart.  Then the support line for the GBP broke and we can find that in the last few days the GBP is getting weaker while the JPY appears to be gaining strength. It is not easy to analyze where this pair will go from here.  The market can find a resistance at 144.20, but for that we will need to get some results from the fundamental news coming out today from the U.K, US and Japan.

Keep your eyes open and look for the trend this pair will set following the announcement today.

Resistances

143.70 – 145.50

Supports

141.35 – 140.30

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from United Kingdom, we have the “Confederation of The British Industry Realized Sales”.

The previous announcement was -16 and the forecast for today is -15. (10:00  GMT).

one more announcement coming in from United States is the “Consumer confidence” which will be released at 14:00 GMT. The previous announcement was 54.1 and the forecast for today is 56.8. Look out for both announcements to have an impact on the market today.

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from US we have the “Jobless claim”. The previous announcement was 545.0k and the forecast for today is 550.0k. (12:30  GMT).

one more announcement coming in from US “Home sales” which will be released at  14:00 GMT. The previous announcement was 5.24m and the forecast for today is 5.35m.

There are 2 types of analysis that are commonly used in the Forex market:

1. Fundamental analysis

2. Technical analysis

There is a constant debate as to which of these is more accurate. I’ve found that  the best analysis’s  are the ones that incorporate a little bit of both

One of the most important tools for analyzing the Forex market are the Support and Resistant lines.

Here’s how the support and resistance points are recognized:

When the market moves up and then pulls back, the highest point it  reaches before it pulling back is a  considered the resistance point.

Once the currency changes directions, the lowest point it reaches becomes the support line.

Once the Support and Resistance lines are established we can use them to position ourselves on the charts following the market trends while safeguarding our positions as well.

My next review will illustrate how to use this tool to perform Technical Analysis on the charts.

USD/JPY

Over the last few days The pair is having a little difficulties getting under the support  90.30 and staying there. Looks like this pair moving to few new support lines .the market have several bars before that happens, USD/JPY moves without a clear trend on a hour chart, when we are looking over a daily chart we can see a clear downtrend, to make it easy we can find in the last 30 days more sellers of the us dollar and more buyers of the japans yen, over the daily chart it will look as 18 reds bars and 12 blue bars

Keep your eyes open, don’t forget to put the S&R lines

NZD/USD

Let’s start analyzing this fascinating pair, earlier this week, the New Zealand dollar continued strengthening, you can clearly see it on our daily chart.

After rising by about 178 pips the New Zealand dollar moved to its highest point since the 21st of august 2008.NZD/USD has bounced from 0.1737 to previous levels close to 0.7281. Currently the pair is trading in the uptrend range between 0.7185 to 0.7281over a daily chart, it is important to note that there is a strong resistance point at 0.7310.
This pair is a wonderful pair for trend traders, we can find some opportunities by continuing to trade with this pair. Let’s convert yesterday’s movements to profits.

Resistances-0.7270-0.7310

Supports-0.7230-0.7200

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements/meetings today which will affect the market.

Coming from U.K we have the “MPC Meeting Minutes”. (09:30 GMT) One more announcement coming in from The US “Federal Open Market Committee” which will be released at 19:15 GMT. At the same time we have Federal Open Market Committee Statement.

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from Canada we have the “Core Retail Sales”. The previous announcement was 1.0%

And the forecast for today is 0.1%. (12:15  GMT).

A second announcement coming from New Zealand  “GDP q/q” which will be released at 22:45 GMT. The previous announcement was -1.0% and the forecast for today is -0.2%.

EUR/USD

Very interesting trading week for foreign exchange traders
one of the most important pairs to follow is definitely the EUR/USD.

Last few weeks we noted that this pair is moving forward in a clear uptrend, as noted in our weekly and daily charts. Concluding that more people bought the EUR and sold the US dollar, the big Q we all ask will this uptrend continue.

There are 3 possible scenarios:

1. The pair can break its resistance line and continue its uptrend to the next resistance point.

2. The pair can continue to move within its current range.

3. The EUR/USD may change directions and break its support line creating a downtrend for the pair.

For a clearer picture we need to wait for more indicators coming from the US and European session. After the results are in we can get much better understanding to where the market will lead us.

Let’s see how much pips the market move….

Resistances:1.4730 – 1.4765

Supports:1.4670 – 1.4610

Today I want to talk about the silver (also known as XAG).  We are all aware that it is part of the commodities in the forex market. While I was traveling around the world this year, I met with many jewelry traders, most of them told me that they believe that 2009 will be the year of the silver and less of the gold. We all remember how a few years ago a few announcements affected the market in regard to the silver.  We also saw how the price of oil affected the USD over the last several years.  it looks like since the recession began and during the recession the commodity market became more and more unclear to analyze and find a trend to follow.

Coming back from my trip around the world, a smart man told me, that the longer the recession will continue the larger the demand for silver will be.

Let’s begin analyzing this pair. When we look at the silver from a few different points of view, we see a few different trends that we can analyze.  When I want to see what happened with the silver I will open a daily chart, there I will have the ability to analyze the previous buying and selling rate of silver and with that information I am able to determine a clear trend of movement for the silver during the previous trading day. From that point it is much easier to find a clear trend and determine the direction the silver is heading into whether an uptrend or a downtrend.

When viewing the daily chart, I can always find a clear trend for the silver.  However by viewing the strength of the USD against the major currencies I can also find a trend for the silver, since the silver is exclusively bought in USD. Let’s see when was the last time the market reached the same market rate; the last time this happened was August 4^th, 2008.  Clearly we want to know until when the silver will continue moving in this uptrend. For that we will need to keep on looking for the support and resistance lines as it reaches certain market levels.

Resistances-17.4200-17.7000

Supports-16.9600 – 16.700

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from U.K we have the “Inflation Report Hearings”.  Another announcement is coming from Germany and it is about the “German ZEW Economic Sentiment” The previous announcement was 56.1 and the forecast for today is 59.9. (9:00 GMT).

A few more announcement are coming in from US . Those are “Core Retail sales” The previous announcement was -0.6% and the forecast for today is 0.4%. The second is going to be covering the “PPI  mm” The previous announcement was -0.9% and the forecast for today is 0.9%. Finally the  “Retail Sales m/m“ which will be released at 12:30 GMT. The previous announcement was -0.1% and the forecast for today is 1.9%. Also at (14:00 GMT) we have the Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaking.

EUR/USD

Let’s start analyzing this fascinating couple. The earlier preview over this pair indicated an uptrend for the EUR.  It appears we took the profit from yesterday move big time.  The EUR  continues to  strengthen and you can clearly view that over a daily chart.

After a strong uptrend move around 137 pips, the EUR/USD has bounced at 1.4515 to A new  levels close to 1.4652. Currently the pair is trading around 1.4647 to 1.4591. Over a daily chart, it is important to note that there is a strong support for the USD at the 1.4600 line.
From a fundamental point of view Barack Obama called yesterday for Congress to tighten the supervision of Wall Street warned the financial community about reckless behavior that could result to another meltdown. President Obama also cautioned about the risks that could lead to a BS Pal “information, similar to that of 1930s. President Obama also said that the US financial system was crashing a year ago with the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers and today the US economy is a  recovery mode. President Obama also indicated that he expects jobless claims to start declining and see more jobs created in the US over the coming months.

Let’s translate yesterday movements to money!

Resistances-1.4650 – 1.4690

Supports-1.4600 – 1.4515

USD/CHF

It appears the last few days the Swiss franc is moving in a clear downtrend.

Today we saw some negative announcement coming from Switzerland as well. The forecast for the “Core Retail sales”  was 7.8% and it came out only at 2.7%. That is the clear explanation for why the SWISSY is in a downtrend at the moment. The support and the resistances lines are the main tools to keep tracking this pair as the day continues. We will also look forward for the announcements coming from the US later today that could effect this pair more.

Resistances – 1.0360 – 1.0425

Supports – 1.0325 – 1.0290

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will likely affect the market.

Coming from Switzerland we have the “Producer and Import Prices, Producer Input Prices”. The previous announcement was 0.0% and the Forecast is 0.1%. (07:15 GMT).

One more announcement coming in from Europe. Industrial Production which will be released at 09:00 GMT, previously resulted at -0.6% and the forecast for today is -0.3%. Later on we will have the FOMC Member Lacker Speak at 16:30 and At 19:50 we will have the FOMC Member Yellen Speak (US)

one of the most obvious indicators of the dollar condition is certainly the INX  chart ,as shown on the chart below we had  a clear trend  with the USD, shown from a technical & fundamental  point of view .the current trend  clearly reflects the situation of the USD against most of the world’s currency, especially when we face such a recession in a global scale. We deal with the biggest question on daily basis which is, what is the next strongest currency ?

It appears like most of the world wants to look for a new primary currency.  We should not be too radical when we enter any transaction this week. Let’s go over what happened the last few days.

EUR/USD

What an amazing weekend, we had a few fascinating moves that only adds more money to our packets.  Checkout the latest move from this pair.  We can see that once we join the trends here we can make a good amount of money with this pair. We will need to see what’s going to happen this week, and with that data we can start working step by step.  We will start by looking over the EUR/USD, lets break it down and we will see how much money we can make dealing this pair.  we can finally see the EUR break the Resistance line, now we will need to start analyzing what will happen next.  The 1.4717 high from December 2008 is next if the EUR continues with this uptrend.

Resistances 1.4560 – 1.4630

Supports 1.4520 – 1.4460

GBP/USD

Over the past several days we saw the cable and the USD trade in a range and continue with that trend. However today the cable broke the resistance line at 1.6600 and it appears to be heading in an uptrend in a long term view. Right now is a great time to keep your eyes and ears open on this pair. Based on reviewing the daily chart, you will be able to view where the next resistance and support lines lay for this pair over the next few days.

Today we saw a spectacular move occur in the market with this pair at 11:00 GMT.  From the fundamental point of view we saw that Monetary Policy Committee Rate Statement speech have an enormous impact on the market and following this announcement  this pair jumped upwards by more than 102pips.

When we went in with a position of buying the GBP and selling the USD using 2 standard lots just before the announcement, we saw our profit soar to the amount of $2000.

This goes to show that even on a day when  the market is not expected to move at all – profitable trades can occur!

Resistances:1.6650 – 1.6665

Supports:1.6600 – 1.6465

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from Canada we have the “Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation ”. The previous announcement was 134K and the forecast for today is 138K. (12:15  GMT).

one more announcement coming in from New Zealand is the  “Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Official Cash Rate ” which will be released at 21:00 GMT. The previous announcement was 2.50% and the forecast for today is 2.50%. At the same time we will have a Reserve Bank of New Zealand Conference which will issue a statement.

I want to start the day by explaining a little about some of the trading strategies in the Forex Market. In order to recognize some of the strategy’s available you need to determine what kind of a trader you are.

Frequently asked questions are, when is the right time to close or to open the position? Or how long should I keep the position open for? This questions is part of the trader’s strategy, let‘s look over the one that will fit your trading strategies and how this varies from one person to the other.

Long-term- usually prefer a daily or a weekly charts, the trader need lots of capital in order to keep the positions alive for a long period of time. The trader will usually close the position when he is pleased From total profit. You can make a lot of profit by joining the trend

Short-term- usually prefer an hourly chart and analyzes the market by combining technical and fundamental information and  can make a good profit from the changes in the range of the currency pair traded.

Intraday – usually prefer a minute’s chart to trade. It is also known as scalping. It is a trading strategy that allows the trader to open and close positions within a few minutes thus taking advantage of minute analysis and reviewing the performance of the currency with little regard to fundamental analysis.

All of the strategies I mentioned above allow you the opportunity to make money is the forex industry. The big question is which one will suits you trading style and goal.

NZD/USD

One of the most closely watched pairs over the last few days has been the Kiwi against the USD.

Last week we noted that this pair came to a point of 1.6991 on 09/01/08 almost exactly on its 1 year anniversary. Wow!! We will have to wait and see if the markets will react to this and go with the uptrend. This week we will look for the Kiwi to hit new levels and this uptrend is likely to continue.