One week ago, we talked about the potential for USD/CAD to rally and that is exactly what has happened. The initial catalyst was a soft report on Canadian retail sales but the broader move has been driven by international worries about a double-dip recession.

We noted that Canadian fundamentals remained strong but when we looked at the chart, it was clear the U.S. dollar wanted to go higher against CAD. What happened? We have rallied from 1.0393 to 1.0639.

The 200-day moving average has given way, downtrend resistance was only a hiccup and we are nearing our initial target of 1.0678. We would take profits on longs initiated below 1.0450 because we think there will be some consolidation here. We see a push to 1.0650 in the coming day but expect that to be the top for the next 2-5 sessions. Initiate shorts at 1.0650 or look for a pullback toward 1.0550 as an opportunity to establish fresh longs for a push toward our eventual target of 1.0850.

We are seeing some bullish signals from GBP/USD and will be looking for an opportunity to establish a long position.

It looks like at this point that the market has accepted David Cameron’s budget at face value and has pushed worries about the nation’s fiscal situation to the sidelines.

We have broken above the  100-day moving average, the key 61.8% retracement level and above resistance in the 1.50 zone. It is impossible to ignore such bullish price action. We are now in an uptending channel above the 14-day moving average (red).

We are seeing some signs of consolidation. Today’s price action has been quiet as we trade in a 55-pip range. We see scope for a slide to the 100-day moving average (blue) but would view this as a buying opportunity for an eventual rally toward 1.5524.

We were surprised by the power of the rally in USD/CAD today. USD was weak on most crosses after a dovish FOMC statement but the Canadian dollar was swamped by soft data on retail sales.

From a fundamental perspective we maintain our bearish USD/CAD stance. The market had only the faintest hope of eventual FOMC rate hikes ahead of the meeting while Canadian retail sales have risen in 12 of the past 14 months. Today’s miss is just a blip in a strong trend.

From a technical perspective, however, we want to be long USD/CAD. We might see a slight pullback in the hours ahead but we will be looking to buy. Here’s how the daily chart looks.

USD/CAD has rallied in three straight sessions. We breached the 200-day moving average and several other resistance levels today. We are partially wary of downtrend resistance but don’t see it as a major hurdle. The RSI is neutral and oil also broke down today.

We like the upside for a test of 1.0679 and perhaps 1.0853.

USD/JPY has whipsawed over the past two sessions. General risk aversion and a strong USD 2-year note auction hurt the big dollar over the past day.

The former wedge formation has now clearly broken to the downside. We have been patient with this trade, waiting for a clear sell signal and fell like it has now arrived. We are below all the major moving averages and support is tenuous.

The big news in the day ahead will the FOMC interest rate decision at 2:15 p.m. ET. This is one of the least-anticipated decisions in recent years but it will still generate a market reaction. It’s virtually set in stone that the Fed will leave rates between 0 and 0.25% and keep the “extended period” language. The focus will be on the economic sentiment. With U.S. housing starts expected to fall by nearly 100K when the data is released later today, it’s safe to say that the Fed will have to take out the line that says housing starts “have edged up.” The employment assessment could also be downgraded and that would weigh on USD/JPY.

Today’s price action was the signal we were looking for to mark the top in EUR/USD. We had a blowout to the upside that has aggressively reversed.

The main news of the day is that China will allow the yuan to appreciate against the USD. Analysts are scrambling to interpret the news and the market has been equally undecided. The U.S. dollar has been a main beneficiary on sentiment that U.S. manufacturing will be more competitive. Initially, the stock market liked the news but a stronger yuan probably means slower worldwide economic growth so that sentiment appears to have taken over.

The idea that China is curbing growth and inflation is weighing on the EUR. There is also a feeling that the entire up-move in EUR/USD was fuelled by short covering. CFTC data released late Friday shows a massive contraction in EUR net shorts so there is evidence that the slump has been little more than position squaring.

The daily chart now shows a downside reversal. We also see an inverted hammer pattern. Confirming the downside is the resistance at the top Bollinger Band, the RSI and the 50-day moving average.

We are seeing some signs of vulnerability in EUR after a streak of six rallies in seven sessions. We touched a fresh weekly high in the North American session on Wednesday but we later closed lower and EUR is down through early Asia-Pacific trading.

Technically, the RSI and Stochastics are flashing highly overbought signals. We are also well above the mid-Bolliger Band. We think any move close to 1.2453 is a wonderful opportunity to establish shorts.

Perhaps the top story in the day ahead will be the results of Spain’s efforts to raise as much as €3.5 billion through the sale of 10 and 30-year bonds. On May 20, Spain paid 4.045% in a 10-year auction but the notes are currently trading near 4.939%. The market will want a yield close to 5.00%; if it’s above 5.25%, the euro will weaken. A failed auction (where it’s cancelled due to lack of interest) would knock the euro down about 200 pips, possibly more. Another metric to watch is the bid-to-cover ratio, which shows how many times the number of bids per dollar sold. A ratio below 1.5 would be worrisome while something over 2.0 would be a positive for the euro. For the 30-year bond auction, a yield over 6.10% would be euro-negative while under 5.70% would be positive.

Spain has about €16.2 billion in debt that needs to be paid in July and Madrid will need to raise funds in order to make the payments. If, however, Spain can find access to funds at reasonable borrowing rates, it won’t have any major debt obligations to repay until April 2011. Success at today’s auctions would clear the way for 10 months and give the euro room to breathe and retrace recent losses.

The pound sterling made another move higher on Tuesday as it reached as high as 1.4838 before settling a bit lower. It touched the highest since mid-May and continues a retracement phase in cable. There is now no major resistance on the hourly chart until the double-top at 1.5048.

From a fundamental perspective, we have claimant count data and retail sales data on Wednesday and Thursday but the market is entirely focused on the June 22 budget. In order to get the pound moving higher Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will need to strike a balance between a credible plan to lower the deficit and something that doesn’t stifle the economy. It’s a tall task.

Technically, the daily chart clearly shows that we’re in a retracement phase but we have to point out that the RSI is beginning to look very overbought. We think the market will press into the 50.0%-61.8 % Fibonacci “box” but we are worried about the timing. If the market moves higher over the next few days it will leave the market in a severely overbought position ahead of the budget and that could lead to a big move lower if Osborne disappoints. If the news is relatively positive, there is still a great deal of resistance clustered around 1.50 and that should stall the market.

We are looking for any push above 1.49 in the days leading up to June 22 as an opportunity to establish short positions. Short-term traders, however, should look to enter into longs but cover them before the 22nd, when we’re expecting a big move.

The Australian dollar rallied on Monday to the highest since May 19, breaking a above resistance and building a convincing double bottom that could point to a 500-pip rally.

AUD/USD took off right from the open of trading on Monday, steadily climbing to a high of 0.8667. It has since pulled back but the close of 0.8587 was above key resistance at 0.8552. The implications are undoubtedly bullish. We have outlined a double bottom formation that targets 0.9046. The measured target coincides with resistance points at 0.9024 and 0.9074. There is also the 200-day moving average to overcome (yellow) it sits at 0.9110 currently.

The first obstacles, however, will the 50-day and 100-day moving averages at 0.8816 and 0.8952 respectively. We don’t expect a clean break to the upside with the stochastics showing highly overbought signals.

Over the next few days we could see some consolidation but barring a sharp move to the downside, we see a gradual decline toward 0.9000.

The euro has started out the week by rising the highest since June 4 as it builds on a rally for the past week.

Over the past six months it has been rare for the euro to string together several up-days. We remain extremely bearish on EUR and will be using this bounce as another opportunity to sell. The question is: when is the right time to sell EUR/USD?

We noted the IMM data released on Friday. It showed EUR net shorts near record just shy of a record high. Remember that IMM data is from the prior Wednesday (in this case June 11). On that day the euro traded at 1.19 compared to 1.2178 currently.  That points to a short squeeze over the past few days. But with the market positioned so agressively short, the squeeze could still have some way to go.
We see three simple targets. 1.2334, 1.2467 and 1.2691. We don’t see the highest target as realistic. Market participants are so bearish on EUR that it will be sold long before it hits 1.26.

Looking at the Ichimoku Cloud on our 4-hour chart we think a somewhat agressive move higher to 1.2567 is possible if we get a close above the top of the cloud (on a 4hr chart).

We will have our sell orders ready, however, once it gets above 1.2334.

Note that the European Union is hosting a summit beginning Thursday. The market will be looking for signals about fiscal austerity and plans for further market intervention.

We have seen some life out of the euro this week so let’s take some time to evaluate the long-term prospects of the European single currency.

We all know that the euro-dollar has been in a long-term downtrend. Since trading at a high of 1.5138 in December the euro plunged to a four-year low of 1.1877 just this past week. That’s a more than 3200 pip decline over six months – truly an amazing decline.

Almost all the money made trading the euro over that time has been on the short side. Rebounds have been shallow and short-lived. Many analysts have been preoccupied by calling the bottom and once again that’s where we are today.

Let’s have a look at the chart. We can see the long-term downtrend but just in the past week we have rallied about 200 pips. Can the rebound continue? Or is this another bounce to sell?

Technically, we can see that the downtrend is well-intact but there has been solid pop. There is no significant support until 1.1637 so much of the market is focused on that target.

Looking at the Bollinger Bands, they show that the euro has traced along the bottom for some time now but there have been periodic rebounds to the upper band. We see some scope for a rebound to the mid-point, at roughly 1.23 or even the upper band, which should trend down toward 1.2450.

On the other hand, it would be no surprise to see the euro continue falling. Many of the corrections have been very shallow and today’s price action suggests we could be heading lower again.

Yesterday we talked about cutting gold long and waiting for better levels to buy. What happened? Gold fell 1%. We still look for more attractive levels and will be buying at $1200 and continuing to evaluate any moves to the upside.

Today, we are struggling to find a clear trend to latch on to. The charts are not sending a great deal of clear buy or sell signals. Nowhere is this more clear than in USD/CAD.

We don’t see anything here that is sending a clear, short-term signal. We know that the long-term trend is down but we are seeing some sideways indications lately and we’re worried about another push to 1.08.

USD/CAD probed the downside today but we had a sound rejection well above support at 1.0333. That move has got us thinking about entering into a long position but we don’t see the right risk/reward ratio. We could see a track up to 1.0580 or 1.0600 but on the downside we want to see 1.0333 broken before we get bearish.

Looking at other charts, it’s similar. There is not a great deal of momentum anywhere. We take that as a signal that the market is unsure. Traders are looking for clear reasons to buy and sell.

In the day ahead we have the ECB and BOE interest rate decisions. That could be a catalyst. Our bias is that risk aversion is on the way up. Stock markets were set up for a nice move higher today but wilted. We will wait for clearer signals.

We are long gold for the long term. The last time we talked about gold, on May 20 (http://www.fxbeer.com/gold-nearing-buy-zone/) we talked about how it was a great time to add gold longs. We virtually picked the bottom and were pleased to see gold rally to a record high today, gaining $70 from our entry point.

What we weren’t pleased to see was the reaction of the market after we broke the old record of $1,249.17. The market was only able to hold above the high for 30 moments. Two more breaks higher touched just two dollars higher at $1.251.68/oz. Price action then turned sour and retreated to close $13 from the high at $1137.

We are now in a position where we have to decide whether to hang on through a potential correction or take profits. We have no doubt that gold is heading higher in the long term but the reversal today is an unmistakable technical signal. As hard as it is for us, we must head to the sidelines. We don’t see any correction below $1200 materializing but for the next few days we see the potential for profit taking. Hopefully, this allows us to re-establish our position at a more attractive level.

On the other hand, we don’t doubt the ability of gold to rally. The RSI isn’t flashing overbought signals and the case for gold buying remains strong. If we see a close above $1250 in the coming days we will happily give up the early part of that move for the chance to confidently buy into the trend.

Dollar-yen has been a frustrating pair to trade recently. It can’t seem to find any strong direction. Just when it looks like it’s going to rally or plunge through support, it heads in the other direction. In essence, we have been trading between 89 and 95 since the start of the New Year.

In the longer-term, we expect the pair to eventually trend lower but at the moment, the trend is clearly sideways. In a sideways market, sometimes there are opportunities to put on a low risk trade that takes advantage of a short-term trend. That’s exactly what we see right now in USD/JPY.

This pair sold off on Friday from 93 to 91 but it has rebounded and consolidated in quiet trading today. This is a classic fibonacci retracement. The high earlier of 92.07 is precisely in “The Box” which is the zone between the 50% and 61.8% retracement. We think the spot rate, at 91.64 presents an excellent value on the short side.

Stochasics are showing an overbought signal on the daily and hourly charts with both in the process of rolling over. From a risk management perspective, the trade also presents good value. A stop at 92.15 is a 50 pip risk while on the downside, there is no significant support until 90.54.

The head and shoulders patter we warned about last week was finally completed in EUR/USD as the pair broke down in spectacular fashion today. The catalyst were comments from a spokesman for Hungary’s Prime Minister who said the nation is in a “grave situation” because the previous government “manipulated” data and “lied” about the state of the economy. Turkey isn’t a part of the euro but is on the periphery of the zone. Worries about Spain also ignited and credit default swaps around the region soared.

Technically, EUR/USD continues to be in bad shape. We have frequently advised selling this pair and always advise following the trend. As everyone knows by now, the trend in EUR/USD is lower. We watched over the past week as a host of economists, strategists and commentators advised buying euros. Obviously, they were wrong.

The only question is: how far will the euro fall? The market has squared its focus on the late-2005 low of 1.1639. As we previously mention, this corresponds with the measured target of the head and shoulders pattern.

We think that any entry point is a good one for the coming week but, as the RSI shows, we are oversold on the two hour chart.  It would be no surprise to see a rebound to 1.21 late on Friday or early next week. This would represent a great entry point provided you could withstand a potential short-squeeze to 1.23, which would be our stop. The whole trade represents a potential profit of 450 pips and a loss of 200.

First, we would like to update yesterday’s post. We noted that USD/JPY was gearing up for a big move and that is exactly what happened. We were cautious on the early move (especially since we had a slight bias to the downside) but once the news that Japan’s Prime Minister quitting hit, we knew which way this pair was heading. His replacement will likely be Fiannce Minister Naoto Kan, who has been quoted as saying he prefers a weaker yen. It seems as though the technicals and fundamentals are aligning for this trade. A strong U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday will likely lead to another leg higher.

The U.S. dollar has been strong today but it has been badly outpaced by it’s northern neighbour as Canada’s loonie has led the forex market. If we get a daily close below 1.0414 we see it as a bearish signal.

The Bank of Canada hiked interest rates on Tuesday but didn’t commit to further rate hikes and we saw a disappointment trade combined with a risk averse environment that left a negative technical picture. We were thinking about entering longs but today’s impressive rally in CAD has taken us aback.

We are now back below the key 200-day moving average. The pair is about to hit some significant technical support at the 100dma (1.0330) followed by trendline support and the old range bottom of 1.0205.

Still, we find it very hard to be long USD/CAD after today’s price action. We caution against agressive shorts because today’s move seems so out of the ordinary. A close above 1.0414 and we might wade into a long position with a very tight stop. If we close below that level we start looking for ways to short the pair.

No one is talking about USD/JPY because nothing much as happened in the pair over the past two weeks. What we see is a pair that is ready to make a big move.

For the past week USD/JPY has been locked in a 200 pip range between 90 and 92. The past three sessions have traced out doji stars and the week earlier also displayed a series of indecisive patterns.

It’s time for the market to make a decision on USD/JPY. We believe the trade is to buy on a break above 91.87 and sell on a fall below 89.91 but we also want to develop a bias.

To us, the downside looks more attractive for a short-term trade. The plunge on May 19 was the last major technical move. As such, we are noting that 91.87 (the high from that day) is a significant point of resistance. From a risk/reward perspective, we are only 50 pips from that high but a 135 pips from our most significant support level. That alone makes us baised to trade this from the short side. What’s more is that the slow stochastics appear ready to start turning over.

On the whole, we want to stay nimble with this pair. We think the next move is going to a big one and we are prepared to give up an early portion of the gains in order to ride the momentum. Keep a close eye on USD/JPY over the next 24 hours.