We may be seeing a paradigm shift in the forex market. Bad news in the U.S. is no longer translating into a broad risk trade.

In the past, bad news in the U.S. would lead to a ‘risk off’ trade where the JPY was the main beneficiary but the USD also rallied against EUR and the commodity bloc. Over the past three days we have seen risk aversion coming from China and bad news in the U.S. Instead of seeing EUR/USD strength, we are seeing weakness.

Remeber that currencies are relative. Over the past 8 months, the euro has slumped based on euro-centric worries. The thinking was that European economic growth would lag U.S. growth by a large margin.

The outlook hasn’t improved for Europe but it is now darkening for the U.S. and elsewhere. Relatively, that’s a good thing for the euro.

If this is a paradigm shift, it’s major. It’s would be reminiscent of the USD during the financial crisis. Initially, the USD was falling to record lows as it appeared the crisis was limited to just the U.S. housing market. Later, when it became clear that the U.S. housing crisis was going to send the worldwide economy into recession, the USD rallied. This wasn’t good news for the USD, rather, it was relatively good news.

We are not yet saying there has been a paradigm shift but we are on the lookout. The caveat is that we are at the start of a new month and new quarter. Trading patterns often get skewed by flows. We won’t get a real idea of what is happening until July 6, when the U.S. returns from holiday.

The pound sterling made another move higher on Tuesday as it reached as high as 1.4838 before settling a bit lower. It touched the highest since mid-May and continues a retracement phase in cable. There is now no major resistance on the hourly chart until the double-top at 1.5048.

From a fundamental perspective, we have claimant count data and retail sales data on Wednesday and Thursday but the market is entirely focused on the June 22 budget. In order to get the pound moving higher Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will need to strike a balance between a credible plan to lower the deficit and something that doesn’t stifle the economy. It’s a tall task.

Technically, the daily chart clearly shows that we’re in a retracement phase but we have to point out that the RSI is beginning to look very overbought. We think the market will press into the 50.0%-61.8 % Fibonacci “box” but we are worried about the timing. If the market moves higher over the next few days it will leave the market in a severely overbought position ahead of the budget and that could lead to a big move lower if Osborne disappoints. If the news is relatively positive, there is still a great deal of resistance clustered around 1.50 and that should stall the market.

We are looking for any push above 1.49 in the days leading up to June 22 as an opportunity to establish short positions. Short-term traders, however, should look to enter into longs but cover them before the 22nd, when we’re expecting a big move.

We have seen some life out of the euro this week so let’s take some time to evaluate the long-term prospects of the European single currency.

We all know that the euro-dollar has been in a long-term downtrend. Since trading at a high of 1.5138 in December the euro plunged to a four-year low of 1.1877 just this past week. That’s a more than 3200 pip decline over six months – truly an amazing decline.

Almost all the money made trading the euro over that time has been on the short side. Rebounds have been shallow and short-lived. Many analysts have been preoccupied by calling the bottom and once again that’s where we are today.

Let’s have a look at the chart. We can see the long-term downtrend but just in the past week we have rallied about 200 pips. Can the rebound continue? Or is this another bounce to sell?

Technically, we can see that the downtrend is well-intact but there has been solid pop. There is no significant support until 1.1637 so much of the market is focused on that target.

Looking at the Bollinger Bands, they show that the euro has traced along the bottom for some time now but there have been periodic rebounds to the upper band. We see some scope for a rebound to the mid-point, at roughly 1.23 or even the upper band, which should trend down toward 1.2450.

On the other hand, it would be no surprise to see the euro continue falling. Many of the corrections have been very shallow and today’s price action suggests we could be heading lower again.

The moment has finally come, after 7 months of range trading from 1.02 to 1.08, USD/CAD has broken down.

The catalyst was a stronger than expected Canadian employment report. Canada added 20.9K jobs in February compared to the 15.5K expected and +43.0K prior. The unemployment rate fell to 8.2% from 8.3%, no change at 8.3% was expected

The best economists we know are cautioning that hiring was heavily skewed toward government jobs and Olympic jobs, so there’s a bit of caution on the fundamental side.

The technical side, however, looks like this:

You don’t need to be an experienced technical analyst to understand the implications of the fall below 1.0207. It’s bearish, very bearish. The target is 0.96 but we will take the 2008 low of 0.9744 as our target.

We are also reminded of how much we like trading USD/CAD on technicals. Some things work technically better than others. Gold is a source of endless frustration for technicians but USD/CAD is a dream.

Our favourite examples are the triple top at 1.30 last year and the 0.97 to 1.03 range trade the played out in a generally text book fashion.

Yesterday we told you about how the euro looked vulnerable against the pound sterling and it proptly fell 100 pips.

Today we are looking at the euro on another front, against the U.S. dollar. The key in this pair for the past six weeks has been the 200-day moving average and today we saw it break below that market — a bearish sign for sure.

The euro has recovered to close above the 200dma, so there is some chance that this was a false breakout, but overall, it’s not looking good for the 16-nation currency. The problems in Greece are haunting the euro, with both the removal of Greece and a bailout as abhorent solutions. It’s also something that is no going to go away. The second thing that is dragging on the euro is weak economic data. The ZEW survey on Tuesday was far below expectations and it seems like every piece of data from Europe is disappointing.

In short, the fundamental and technical outlook is poor.

This chart shows the only line that matters right now — the 200dma. We can see that it’s sitting right on the line after falling about 40 pips below it earlier. We expect that it will fall definitely below the line in the next day or two. The next test will be the Dec. 22 low of 1.4217. If that breaks, a fall to 1.40 is likely and a target as low as 1.3750 possible.

Taking a look at the U.S. dollar/Swiss franc chart, there is a huge breakdown followed by a clear double-bottom pattern.

The pair fell 250 pips on Friday but the hourly chart shows strong signs of a coming retracement. The measured target of the double-bottom is 1.0274, which is nearly 100 pips above the current level. A move to their would also fit nicely into the Fibonacci retracement ‘box’ between 1.0260 and 1.0290, which represent the 50% and 61.8% levels.

As we can see, the double-bottom is a textbook fundamental pattern and if this chart holds to form, we could see a solid rally.

Any move below 1.0132, however, would be a sell signal and even anything below 1.0150 would be a good stop for a cautious trader.

On the upside, we would favour a full retracement of the big drop if USD/CHF can clear 1.0290.

AUD/USD looks tired and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report could be just the thing to stomp out the fading rally.

We saw a 100 pip intraday reversal on Thursday and that has set up an inverted hammer pattern.

We also draw your attention to the slow Stochastic, which is deep into overbought territory with the signal line threatening to cross over.

By any measure, AUD/USD is overbought. We have seen a rise in 8 of the past 12 sessions and all the down days were negligible until Thursday.

The short-term chart also looks like it’s setting up for a big move.

We’re seeing a classic consolidation pattern after a sharp reversal. The range is very tight at the moment, with 0.9180 and 0.9160 as the parameters. Any break is a short-term ‘go with’ but on the top side we would take profits quickly and look for a level to be a better seller. On the bottom, we would hold on through Friday’s non-farm payrolls and look to hit a home run as AUD/USD falls back to 0.8750 or lower.

There is no longer any doubt. The eight-month uptrend in EUR/USD is over. The chart is broken.

The only question now is: how far will the euro fall?

What we see on the daily chart is that the euro had a strong, steady uptrend that was broken in early December and has been sliding since. Thursday showed a big drop but Friday showed some stabilization, generating a doji star formation that can sometimes indicate a reversal.

When we look at some associated indicators, they show that the euro is severely oversold. The daily Bollinger Bands (in blue and green) show the euro driving down the lower Bollinger. The slow stochasic (red and orange) is deeply in oversold and the RSI has broken down.

All these indicators tell us that there will be a rebound in the euro at some point but our experience also tells us that markets can remain oversold for long stretches at turning points in a market.

The target we have been eyeing through this entire trade is the 200-day moving average (red). It comes in at 1.4187 today, which is nearlywhere the lows from August and the psychological support at 1.42 comes in.

It will be very tempting to go long EUR/USD in the next day if we see these levels. In a deeply oversold market, such convergence of support is generally a great place to put orders and hope they get filled on a sharp drop in the market. If those support levels give way, we wouldn’t rule out a drop to 1.39 in the near term.

Confirmation of the rebound will be found on the hourly chart, where we can see a well-definted downtrend.

We can see that this trend has been tested at least 4 times. It should pose initial resistance to any rebound in this pair. If it’s breached in the near-term, expect the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at just below 1.46 to be the next target. Those looking to sell a rebound in EUR/USD will start piling in at that level.

Overall, this is an exciting chart that will continue to add volatility and intrigue to the forex market in the coming weeks. The euro is definitely in a severe retracement following the past 6 months of gains but it’s growing oversold and market participants need to be prepared for a bounce.

You can bet that the people at the Federal Reserve have been glued to thier Bloomberg terminals all day with one chart on their screens — USD/JPY.

Today’s fall in the pair is no doubt a frightful one. One day after the FOMC minutes revealed that the Fed regards the dollar decline so far as “orderly”, we’re seeing the first signs of a disorderly decline.

In short, things could get start to get ugly here.

One of the tenants of forex technical analysis is to look at intermarket dynamics. There are correlations; some strong, some weak. One of the better correlations of the past two years has been that when stocks risk, the U.S. dollar makes gains against the yen.

Today, with the S&P 500 up 5 points and near a one-year high, we are seeing the U.S. dollar getting crushed against the yen and everything else. Another tenant of technical analysis is that when correlations start to break down, something is changing. What is changing here? Could it be that we are seeing the beginning of a massive dollar sell-off? It’s starting to feel that way.

But before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s keep an eye on the calendar. Thursday is U.S. Thanksgiving and that should sap trading volumes. Afterwards we get into a bearish seasonal period for U.S. stocks and any sustained decline should boost the U.S. dollar.

What we want to watch, more than anything, is the same chart they’re watching at the Fed.

USD/JPY four hour

We can see that critical support at 88.00 has broken. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a retest of that level before the weekend but the technical damage is done.

What’s truly scary, however, is not that we’ve broken the support on the four hour chart. It’s that we are very close to support on the long-term charts. The weekly support on the left side of this chart is a 14-year low. A break below here would open up the possibility of a test of the all-time low of 80.

Needless to say, this weekly chart shows that we’re already within a few pips of some very, very critical support.

For traders, remember that support levels like these are rarely broken on the first try. We may see a break and then a retest and overall volatility. Still, the implications don’t look good for the U.S. dollar if 87.12 can’t hold in USD/JPY.

What might happen in the event of a disorderly decline in the U.S. dollar? Here’s what the FOMC said in yesterday’s minutes: “Any tendency for dollar depreciation to intensify or to put significant upward pressure on inflation would bear close watching.”

Such a decline in the U.S. dollar has the potential to create a massive conundrum for the Fed. If inflation rises, they will need to raise interest rates. But can they raise interest rates with the housing and banking sectors so fragile? If they are forced to raise rates, what will that do for the recovery? If they don’t raise rates, what will it do for the dollar?

This is what the Fed is worried about right now. Watch dollar-yen closely and listen to what the Fed says next.

A failed attempt to break 138.50 established a long-term triple-top on EUR/JPY charts and has led to a substantial 300 pip pullback. This chart has been a easy one to trade for technical traders and given the historical volatility of the pair around tops, this move may still have some way to go.

Looking at the hourly chart, a pattern of sharp drops and retracements is evident. After the initial drop, there is a nearly perfect 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The second leg down was followed by a nearly 50% bounce and third leg by only a 22% rebound. In the most-recent leg, we have already seen a 38.2% retracement.

If that correction can exceed 50% (135.61) then the hourly downtrend may be in jeopardy. In that case, look for some stronger consolidation around 136.22 – 136.33 as another cue to sell. If then downtrend continues, look to support at 134.87.

What a market we are experiencing today!!!  It spells money!!!

As we can see from the trading day yesterday the oil continued its movement in the direction of an uptrend reaching the price of $75.38 a barrel. This was a 10 month high for oil after the amazing summer of 2008 when oil reached $140 a barrel.  This direction continues to support the weakening of the USD, while supporting the CAD and AUD, the commodity driven currencies.

When will this trend stop??

Maybe a few traders have an idea when this will end, however when we look at technical analysis we continue to clearly see the trend.  The announcements we mentioned above coming from the US have already been published and both were positive for the USD. Will we see a market correction or will the trend continue? Question left unanswered will be answered by the traders during the end of the London session and into the US session. Make sure to always examine your support and resistance lines before entering your trades.

Let’s take a closer look at a few pairs:

USD/CAD

I’m not going to talk about the oil, but we can talk about this pair and how it is affected by the oil.  We can find that yesterday this pair made more moves supporting the price of oil, leading to a stronger CAD. Here are the Support and resistance lines for this pair today.

GBP/USD

Employment data in the UK today showed that the country lost 20.8K jobs, less than the 24.5K expected, helping the cable gain a bit against the buck. The gain put it above the 1.6000 level temporarily, though it has come off a little since then going back to the range it was trading in during the last few trading days.

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today that will affect the market.

Coming from US we have the “Core CPI M/M”.  The previous announcement was 0.1% and the forecast for today is 0.1%. Released at (12:30 GMT).

One more announcement coming from the US  “Unemployment Claims” which will be released at  12:30 GMT, the previous announcement was 521K and the forecast for today is 524K.

Today, I would like to continue to address the unprecedented weakening of the USD and the effect it has on major currencies. One of the most exciting things happening in the market over the last few weeks, days and hours are simply the record breaking increase of the Gold and silver. More so we are seeing the commodity related currencies also increase in value to a point of which few have gone and recovered from.The CAD and AUD are both approaching all time highs and continue on a strong uptrend against the USD. Is the USD done??

No, allow me to explain, many analysts across the world agree the recession is over however many believe the road to complete recovery is going to slow and painful, especially in the area of job growth. Fundamental analysis continues to show us higher unemployment rates from the US, the weakness of consumer spending continues to decline or remain flat. However with so much of the world wealth tied into the USD, it is hard to imagine a complete crash, for us traders right now the trend is clear!! We are seeing a weak USD and stronger everything else. In this market we say, “The trend is your friend”

Let’s talk on one of the most popular pair in the world

EUR/USD

The EUR has been moving in a clear uptrend. Today it reached and broke the resistance level of 1.4812. The expectation by many analysts in this market and the next resistance line for the EUR is at the 1.5000 line. Today we have seen the gold piggy back ride on the increase of the EUR with the gold reaching the level of $1065 an oz today!! The trend for this pair is clear, the fundamental and technical analysis is there to support our findings. Continue to look for the entry opportunity for this exciting and volatile pair now!!!

Here are the S&R line for Today:

Support: 1.4850-1.4780-1.4740

Resistance: 1.4890-1.4960-1.5010

Alright, so before we start today let’s see how our review yesterday and what happened with the AUS/USD. As you remember yesterday we talked about the amazing trend this pair has and how over the last few month we saw the great uptrend this pair offered us ( I will show you how much money you could have made yesterday with this pair).

Now let us talk more about the G7 (meeting of the finance ministers from a group of seven industrialized nations), as Forex traders we receive some very interesting news from those ministers and world leaders. All leaders made a bold statement expressing support for a strong dollar. The joint statement after their meeting in Istanbul was identical to an earlier statement of April “We come back and strengthen the common interest of our strong In recent months we began to see signs of global economic recovery, continuous improvement in conditions in the capital markets. However, there is no room for complacency, since the growth forecast is still not stable labor market conditions have not improved. To recovery will be based, we leave the support mechanisms in economics “, the ministerial statement said.  The ministers are seeking to strengthen the global market by indicating what they would like to see however we are still seeing a weaker buck today and the big question is, when will they intervene and make it a stronger dollar?

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market. Coming from United Kingdom we have the “Manufacturing Production M/M”. The previous announcement was 0.9% and the forecast for today is 0.4%. (08:30  GMT). Two more announcements coming in from Canada “Building Permits M/M” which will be released at 12:30 GMT. The previous announcement was -11.4% and the forecast for today is 4.5%. We have the “Ivey PMI”. The previous announcement was 55.7 and the forecast for today is 56.6. (14:00 GMT)

USD/CAD

The USD has lost it power over the last 3 days after it appeared like the USD was getting stronger.  We know that over the last few weeks we are seeing more sales of the USD and more buyers of the CAD and those actions are increasing the value of the Loonie. As we all know over the last 3 quarters the USD has been dropping against the majors against the EUR alone it is down 15% Y/Y already. Today we will wait and see what the result from Canada will bring today. Those results can give a strong indicator as to the direction of the CAD. I will Put Support and resistance lines so we can get a much better feel to where this pair goes. In a technical point of view we used a moving average of 30 days on a weekly and daily chart and with both it appears to be a down trend.

AUD/USD

It‘s not the first time that we are talking about this great pair.  The thing about this pair that makes it so exciting is that every few weeks, days or hours this pair is breaking the previous record and moving in a uptrend. Take a look over the daily chart and you will clearly see the trend this currency is moving in. Over the last year we have seen that this pair has moved in the 2600 pips range and in a clear uptrend. Now the big question I hear everyone asking is when and will this pair will really break the record and prove this uptrend to be real and reach the highest point of 0.9400?

In order to get the feeling of the movement you will need to take a look at a few different parameters, one is the fundamental news that will come from the US and Australia that will directly affect the move and trend of this currency.  Next thing to do is keep looking over the chart and to technically analyze the trend of this pair over non fundamental days where only sentiment will effects its movement.  The combination of both will help you make the right decision when trading. Over the last few weeks the market has moved nicely for this pair, let’s go ahead and translate today’s movements to money in our pockets!

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from United Kingdom we have the “Services Purchasing Managers’ Index”. The previous announcement was 54.1 and the forecast for today is 54.6. (08:30 GMT).

Two more announcements are also coming in. One from the US “ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI” which will be released at 14:00 GMT, the previous announcement was 48.4 and the forecast for today is 50.  Also coming from New Zealand we have the “Business Confidence”. The previous announcement was -25. (21:00 GMT), no forecast on this one available.

Today I would like to talk about something a little different. I have been browsing many Forex forums and talking with many traders and I am seeing a new trend or  one could argue a trading strategy. It is called the 10 minute trader. One amazing thing about this strategy is many claim to have made a lot of money and minimized the amount of risk associated with opening a large position. These are traders opening large lots in the minimum amount of $500,000 to $5 million. How they determine which way to trade is simple, they simply view a 10 minute chart and following the trend on the specific pair they are trading. Most 10 minute traders, trade with the majors, mostly a pair that has been trading in 20-30 pip range with low spread such as EUR/USD or USD/JPY. Those pairs can prove to be interesting in this trading strategy. Looking at a 10 minute chart on EUR/USD and we can clearly see the pip opportunity of a 10 pip move on a $1 Million position, that’s a $1000 profit just for following nothing but technical analysis on a 10 minute chart , please make sure to look on the overall trend of the pair you are trading with as well by taking a zoom out in the chart or changing your time scale to hourly or daily to ensure maximum knowledge on this pair and keeping on eye out on some of the fundamental news coming out.

USD/JPY

Yes,yes,yes I know it is one of the most interesting pairs to trade with, we talked yesterday how the JPY was in a nice clear trend and waiting with the position could lead to a nice profit. Now let’s take a look over the last few days, we will find a lovely trend showing the USD getting weaker while showing us traders believe in the JPY right now. From a technical point of view, we can take a look at the next support line for this pair, if this pairs gets there it is likely to break it and the trend will continue. For us this always an exciting pair to look at and trade with, also don’t forget to look for the announcements coming from the US and Japan today. Enjoy and happy trading.

Resistances-89.80– 90.12-90.40

Supports-89.34 – 89.12-88.68

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from Switzerland we have the “KOF Leading Indicators”. The previous announcement was -0.04 and the forecast for today is 0.5. (09:30 GMT).

Three more announcements coming in from United States, one of importance is the “ADP Employment Change” which will be released at 12:15 GMT. The previous announcement was -298k and the forecast for today is -200k. Also coming in from Canada “GDP m/m” which will be released at 12:30 GMT. The previous announcement was 0.1% and the forecast for today is 0.4%. Also coming in from Japan is the “Tankan” announcement which will be released at 23:50 GMT. The previous announcement was -48 and the forecast for today is -33.

NZD/USD

Let’s start analyzing this fascinating pair, earlier this week, the New Zealand dollar continued strengthening, you can clearly see it on our daily chart.

After rising by about 178 pips the New Zealand dollar moved to its highest point since the 21st of august 2008.NZD/USD has bounced from 0.1737 to previous levels close to 0.7281. Currently the pair is trading in the uptrend range between 0.7185 to 0.7281over a daily chart, it is important to note that there is a strong resistance point at 0.7310.
This pair is a wonderful pair for trend traders, we can find some opportunities by continuing to trade with this pair. Let’s convert yesterday’s movements to profits.

Resistances-0.7270-0.7310

Supports-0.7230-0.7200

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements/meetings today which will affect the market.

Coming from U.K we have the “MPC Meeting Minutes”. (09:30 GMT) One more announcement coming in from The US “Federal Open Market Committee” which will be released at 19:15 GMT. At the same time we have Federal Open Market Committee Statement.

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from U.K we have the “Inflation Report Hearings”.  Another announcement is coming from Germany and it is about the “German ZEW Economic Sentiment” The previous announcement was 56.1 and the forecast for today is 59.9. (9:00 GMT).

A few more announcement are coming in from US . Those are “Core Retail sales” The previous announcement was -0.6% and the forecast for today is 0.4%. The second is going to be covering the “PPI  mm” The previous announcement was -0.9% and the forecast for today is 0.9%. Finally the  “Retail Sales m/m“ which will be released at 12:30 GMT. The previous announcement was -0.1% and the forecast for today is 1.9%. Also at (14:00 GMT) we have the Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaking.

EUR/USD

Let’s start analyzing this fascinating couple. The earlier preview over this pair indicated an uptrend for the EUR.  It appears we took the profit from yesterday move big time.  The EUR  continues to  strengthen and you can clearly view that over a daily chart.

After a strong uptrend move around 137 pips, the EUR/USD has bounced at 1.4515 to A new  levels close to 1.4652. Currently the pair is trading around 1.4647 to 1.4591. Over a daily chart, it is important to note that there is a strong support for the USD at the 1.4600 line.
From a fundamental point of view Barack Obama called yesterday for Congress to tighten the supervision of Wall Street warned the financial community about reckless behavior that could result to another meltdown. President Obama also cautioned about the risks that could lead to a BS Pal “information, similar to that of 1930s. President Obama also said that the US financial system was crashing a year ago with the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers and today the US economy is a  recovery mode. President Obama also indicated that he expects jobless claims to start declining and see more jobs created in the US over the coming months.

Let’s translate yesterday movements to money!

Resistances-1.4650 – 1.4690

Supports-1.4600 – 1.4515

USD/CHF

It appears the last few days the Swiss franc is moving in a clear downtrend.

Today we saw some negative announcement coming from Switzerland as well. The forecast for the “Core Retail sales”  was 7.8% and it came out only at 2.7%. That is the clear explanation for why the SWISSY is in a downtrend at the moment. The support and the resistances lines are the main tools to keep tracking this pair as the day continues. We will also look forward for the announcements coming from the US later today that could effect this pair more.

Resistances – 1.0360 – 1.0425

Supports – 1.0325 – 1.0290

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will likely affect the market.

Coming from Switzerland we have the “Producer and Import Prices, Producer Input Prices”. The previous announcement was 0.0% and the Forecast is 0.1%. (07:15 GMT).

One more announcement coming in from Europe. Industrial Production which will be released at 09:00 GMT, previously resulted at -0.6% and the forecast for today is -0.3%. Later on we will have the FOMC Member Lacker Speak at 16:30 and At 19:50 we will have the FOMC Member Yellen Speak (US)

one of the most obvious indicators of the dollar condition is certainly the INX  chart ,as shown on the chart below we had  a clear trend  with the USD, shown from a technical & fundamental  point of view .the current trend  clearly reflects the situation of the USD against most of the world’s currency, especially when we face such a recession in a global scale. We deal with the biggest question on daily basis which is, what is the next strongest currency ?

It appears like most of the world wants to look for a new primary currency.  We should not be too radical when we enter any transaction this week. Let’s go over what happened the last few days.

EUR/USD

What an amazing weekend, we had a few fascinating moves that only adds more money to our packets.  Checkout the latest move from this pair.  We can see that once we join the trends here we can make a good amount of money with this pair. We will need to see what’s going to happen this week, and with that data we can start working step by step.  We will start by looking over the EUR/USD, lets break it down and we will see how much money we can make dealing this pair.  we can finally see the EUR break the Resistance line, now we will need to start analyzing what will happen next.  The 1.4717 high from December 2008 is next if the EUR continues with this uptrend.

Resistances 1.4560 – 1.4630

Supports 1.4520 – 1.4460

GBP/USD

Over the past several days we saw the cable and the USD trade in a range and continue with that trend. However today the cable broke the resistance line at 1.6600 and it appears to be heading in an uptrend in a long term view. Right now is a great time to keep your eyes and ears open on this pair. Based on reviewing the daily chart, you will be able to view where the next resistance and support lines lay for this pair over the next few days.

Today we saw a spectacular move occur in the market with this pair at 11:00 GMT.  From the fundamental point of view we saw that Monetary Policy Committee Rate Statement speech have an enormous impact on the market and following this announcement  this pair jumped upwards by more than 102pips.

When we went in with a position of buying the GBP and selling the USD using 2 standard lots just before the announcement, we saw our profit soar to the amount of $2000.

This goes to show that even on a day when  the market is not expected to move at all – profitable trades can occur!

Resistances:1.6650 – 1.6665

Supports:1.6600 – 1.6465

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from Canada we have the “Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation ”. The previous announcement was 134K and the forecast for today is 138K. (12:15  GMT).

one more announcement coming in from New Zealand is the  “Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Official Cash Rate ” which will be released at 21:00 GMT. The previous announcement was 2.50% and the forecast for today is 2.50%. At the same time we will have a Reserve Bank of New Zealand Conference which will issue a statement.

I want to start the day by explaining a little about some of the trading strategies in the Forex Market. In order to recognize some of the strategy’s available you need to determine what kind of a trader you are.

Frequently asked questions are, when is the right time to close or to open the position? Or how long should I keep the position open for? This questions is part of the trader’s strategy, let‘s look over the one that will fit your trading strategies and how this varies from one person to the other.

Long-term- usually prefer a daily or a weekly charts, the trader need lots of capital in order to keep the positions alive for a long period of time. The trader will usually close the position when he is pleased From total profit. You can make a lot of profit by joining the trend

Short-term- usually prefer an hourly chart and analyzes the market by combining technical and fundamental information and  can make a good profit from the changes in the range of the currency pair traded.

Intraday – usually prefer a minute’s chart to trade. It is also known as scalping. It is a trading strategy that allows the trader to open and close positions within a few minutes thus taking advantage of minute analysis and reviewing the performance of the currency with little regard to fundamental analysis.

All of the strategies I mentioned above allow you the opportunity to make money is the forex industry. The big question is which one will suits you trading style and goal.

NZD/USD

One of the most closely watched pairs over the last few days has been the Kiwi against the USD.

Last week we noted that this pair came to a point of 1.6991 on 09/01/08 almost exactly on its 1 year anniversary. Wow!! We will have to wait and see if the markets will react to this and go with the uptrend. This week we will look for the Kiwi to hit new levels and this uptrend is likely to continue.