The election drama in the UK ramped up after Thursday’s debate among the leaders of the three main parties. the stakes have been raised for the May 6 election after a strong performance in last week’s debate propelled the third place Liberal Democrats into contention. a UK Sunday Times poll showed Liberal Democrats’ support rising 11 percentage points to 29%, the Conservatives down 7 pp to 33% and Labour down 2 pp to 30%.

The market attempted to guage the impact of the poll on Friday but a rally and later selloff were both wiped away, leaving an indecisive doji star pattern. Such a pattern is a precursor to volatiliy and can signify a reversal. The latest polls confirmed the worst fears with the Liberal Democrats surging and a hung Parliament growing much more likely.

The gap lower at the open today completes a bearish evening star pattern that will be confirmed by a close below 1.5378. In fact, the 1.5378 level will be critical as it also represents the mid-March high. Uptrend support lies just below that level at 1.5363.

A close below those levels would be bearish, targetting 1.5150. It may even lead to a re-test of the 1.4787 lows.

With the three parties in a virtual dead heat, the GBP has slumped. The market will be trying to judge if the move to the Liberal Democrats has staying power or is just a passing fancy.