Today I want to talk about the silver (also known as XAG).  We are all aware that it is part of the commodities in the forex market. While I was traveling around the world this year, I met with many jewelry traders, most of them told me that they believe that 2009 will be the year of the silver and less of the gold. We all remember how a few years ago a few announcements affected the market in regard to the silver.  We also saw how the price of oil affected the USD over the last several years.  it looks like since the recession began and during the recession the commodity market became more and more unclear to analyze and find a trend to follow.

Coming back from my trip around the world, a smart man told me, that the longer the recession will continue the larger the demand for silver will be.

Let’s begin analyzing this pair. When we look at the silver from a few different points of view, we see a few different trends that we can analyze.  When I want to see what happened with the silver I will open a daily chart, there I will have the ability to analyze the previous buying and selling rate of silver and with that information I am able to determine a clear trend of movement for the silver during the previous trading day. From that point it is much easier to find a clear trend and determine the direction the silver is heading into whether an uptrend or a downtrend.

When viewing the daily chart, I can always find a clear trend for the silver.  However by viewing the strength of the USD against the major currencies I can also find a trend for the silver, since the silver is exclusively bought in USD. Let’s see when was the last time the market reached the same market rate; the last time this happened was August 4^th, 2008.  Clearly we want to know until when the silver will continue moving in this uptrend. For that we will need to keep on looking for the support and resistance lines as it reaches certain market levels.

Resistances-17.4200-17.7000

Supports-16.9600 – 16.700

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will likely affect the market.

Coming from Switzerland we have the “Producer and Import Prices, Producer Input Prices”. The previous announcement was 0.0% and the Forecast is 0.1%. (07:15 GMT).

One more announcement coming in from Europe. Industrial Production which will be released at 09:00 GMT, previously resulted at -0.6% and the forecast for today is -0.3%. Later on we will have the FOMC Member Lacker Speak at 16:30 and At 19:50 we will have the FOMC Member Yellen Speak (US)

one of the most obvious indicators of the dollar condition is certainly the INX  chart ,as shown on the chart below we had  a clear trend  with the USD, shown from a technical & fundamental  point of view .the current trend  clearly reflects the situation of the USD against most of the world’s currency, especially when we face such a recession in a global scale. We deal with the biggest question on daily basis which is, what is the next strongest currency ?

It appears like most of the world wants to look for a new primary currency.  We should not be too radical when we enter any transaction this week. Let’s go over what happened the last few days.

EUR/USD

What an amazing weekend, we had a few fascinating moves that only adds more money to our packets.  Checkout the latest move from this pair.  We can see that once we join the trends here we can make a good amount of money with this pair. We will need to see what’s going to happen this week, and with that data we can start working step by step.  We will start by looking over the EUR/USD, lets break it down and we will see how much money we can make dealing this pair.  we can finally see the EUR break the Resistance line, now we will need to start analyzing what will happen next.  The 1.4717 high from December 2008 is next if the EUR continues with this uptrend.

Resistances 1.4560 – 1.4630

Supports 1.4520 – 1.4460