Today, I would like to continue to address the unprecedented weakening of the USD and the effect it has on major currencies. One of the most exciting things happening in the market over the last few weeks, days and hours are simply the record breaking increase of the Gold and silver. More so we are seeing the commodity related currencies also increase in value to a point of which few have gone and recovered from.The CAD and AUD are both approaching all time highs and continue on a strong uptrend against the USD. Is the USD done??

No, allow me to explain, many analysts across the world agree the recession is over however many believe the road to complete recovery is going to slow and painful, especially in the area of job growth. Fundamental analysis continues to show us higher unemployment rates from the US, the weakness of consumer spending continues to decline or remain flat. However with so much of the world wealth tied into the USD, it is hard to imagine a complete crash, for us traders right now the trend is clear!! We are seeing a weak USD and stronger everything else. In this market we say, “The trend is your friend”

Let’s talk on one of the most popular pair in the world

EUR/USD

The EUR has been moving in a clear uptrend. Today it reached and broke the resistance level of 1.4812. The expectation by many analysts in this market and the next resistance line for the EUR is at the 1.5000 line. Today we have seen the gold piggy back ride on the increase of the EUR with the gold reaching the level of $1065 an oz today!! The trend for this pair is clear, the fundamental and technical analysis is there to support our findings. Continue to look for the entry opportunity for this exciting and volatile pair now!!!

Here are the S&R line for Today:

Support: 1.4850-1.4780-1.4740

Resistance: 1.4890-1.4960-1.5010

Yes, Barack Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize was the highlight of the weekend, but let’s be honest the Dollar isn’t on the same position as Mr. Obama in terms of popularity. Lets look over the last few weeks and we will find something even more interesting then the Nobel peace prize in terms of a trend.

It keeps on being positive for us as forex traders, the trends are clearly there.  Over the last few months we will see a very clear trend on most of the currencies traded in the Forex market, especially the majors. We can also see the same trend applying to the commodities.

What continues to push the commodities in the market forward appears to be the weaker dollar. So know the Nobel peace prize doesn’t look so relevant for the dollar and we will need to wait and see what will be the upcoming announcement for the US economy this week and the effect they have on the USD. So lets break it down and see how it will affect the Forex market.

This week, I am sure we will get some more movement and excitement from the market!!  However we are starting the week with Monday which happens to have 2 of the 3 largest markets closed because of a holiday. The US, CAD and JPY are all closed because of the holiday. When the biggest session is closed the market is expected to be quite and not a lot movement is expected.

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today that will affect the market.

Coming from New Zealand we have the “Retail Sales M/M”.  The previous announcement was -0.5%and the forecast for today is 0.6%. Released at (21:45 GMT).

One more “Core Retail Sales M/M” which will be released at  21:45 GMT, the previous announcement was -0.5% and the forecast for today is 0.5%.we have a Bank Holiday in Japan, US, and Canada so will not expected to see a strong activity from there.

Fundamentals:  We have a few announcements today which will affect the market.

Coming from Canada we have the “Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation ”. The previous announcement was 134K and the forecast for today is 138K. (12:15  GMT).

one more announcement coming in from New Zealand is the  “Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Official Cash Rate ” which will be released at 21:00 GMT. The previous announcement was 2.50% and the forecast for today is 2.50%. At the same time we will have a Reserve Bank of New Zealand Conference which will issue a statement.

I want to start the day by explaining a little about some of the trading strategies in the Forex Market. In order to recognize some of the strategy’s available you need to determine what kind of a trader you are.

Frequently asked questions are, when is the right time to close or to open the position? Or how long should I keep the position open for? This questions is part of the trader’s strategy, let‘s look over the one that will fit your trading strategies and how this varies from one person to the other.

Long-term- usually prefer a daily or a weekly charts, the trader need lots of capital in order to keep the positions alive for a long period of time. The trader will usually close the position when he is pleased From total profit. You can make a lot of profit by joining the trend

Short-term- usually prefer an hourly chart and analyzes the market by combining technical and fundamental information and  can make a good profit from the changes in the range of the currency pair traded.

Intraday – usually prefer a minute’s chart to trade. It is also known as scalping. It is a trading strategy that allows the trader to open and close positions within a few minutes thus taking advantage of minute analysis and reviewing the performance of the currency with little regard to fundamental analysis.

All of the strategies I mentioned above allow you the opportunity to make money is the forex industry. The big question is which one will suits you trading style and goal.

NZD/USD

One of the most closely watched pairs over the last few days has been the Kiwi against the USD.

Last week we noted that this pair came to a point of 1.6991 on 09/01/08 almost exactly on its 1 year anniversary. Wow!! We will have to wait and see if the markets will react to this and go with the uptrend. This week we will look for the Kiwi to hit new levels and this uptrend is likely to continue.